A detailed plan for Nititnat Triangle trip

Timing of expedition:
The best weather for the expedition is overcast sky with no rain. The Lakes are known to be very windy during the summer season with easterly winds dominating during the day time (11-12 pm – 6-7 pm). The winds are powered by the thermal effect, thus they are prevalent when the sun is heating the shore. Sunny weather makes swimming west in Nitinat Lake (or Hobiton and Tsusiat) impractical as the majority of swim will be against the wind and, most importantly, against the chop. Swimming in sharp chop with a bag is extremely hard and will decrease the swimming speeds a lot. Thus, I suggest doing the first part of the swim when the sky is overcast. Central Vancouver Island is a bit rainier in August and September then June and July, so it will be easier to find a good overcast day if we aim the trip for the period of late August, early September. Ideally, the perfect plan would be to go to Nitinat for wind surfing Late August, Early September and wait for an overcast day. In practice we might wait for a good forecast in Vancouver and catch a suitable day in Nitinat.


Route details:
The route includes 2 parts: biking from Nanaimo to Nitinat and Swimming the Nitinat Triangle. If you want to join only the swimming part, please do, but you will not be eligible for MEC grant (the trip is pretty cheap anyway).
Since the Nitinat narrows must be swam towards the ocean, as discussed in safety section, the route must be completed clockwise, starting and ending at Dititaht Campground. Please see the route on the map:

1) Bike from Nanaimo to Nitinat

 
Distance: 108 km
Elevation gain: 1300 m
Time: all day.
ETA at Nitinat: 6 pm
The plan is to arrive to Nanaimo the night before the bike ride to settle for the night in some park near Nanaimo and start riding the next morning.
The route includes mostly well-established logging roads with good gravel surface. One section (~7 km) is only ridable on a mountain bike with thick tires (2. inch minimum). 100 km is a long way. We will be tired in the end of the day.

2) Bike from Nitinat campground to the start of the swim
 
Distance: 28 km
Elevation gain: 560 m!
It will take a while because of the elevation gain! ~ 3.5 hr
Could be done in the first day, but that increases the distance on 22 km, making the total of 130 km. Doable in one day but we need to be at Nitinat before 6 pm to get the permit. We might have to stop at Nitinat for a few days to wait for overcast weather. In the meanwhile, we can wind surf for a few days. It will be either windy or not, both is good. Also going all the way to the start might not be necessary in the same day because it might not work with the timing of tides at the Nitinat Bar. We might need to take 2 days to cover the Nitinat lake to ensure the safest time for the bar crossing. The decision will be made later next year.

3) Swim, hike, bushwack
Total swimming distance: 30.7 km
Total distance: 41.6 km
Hiking + bushwacking: 10.9 km
Estimated duration: 3-4 days.
Distance breakdown:
Start and finish – West Coast Trail (Nitinat Lake): 12.6 km
Tsusiat lake: 6 km
Hobiton Lake: 7.2 km
The rest of Nitinat Lake: 4.9 km
Tidal Chart for Tofino: http://www.tides.gc.ca/eng/data/table/2019/wlev_ref/8615 (I have data adjusted for 2:15 hr delay on my computer)

Schedule of the swims:
According to the Tidal Chart, if the trip happens in Early September, we have an option of either swimming 12.6 km in one day and catching ~5-6 pm high slack water or going later in season when stopping a few km before the bar for the overnight (10-11 km) and crossing it early morning. I think that the first option is the best.
Will we manage to swim 12.6 km in one day? I estimate our speed with bags to be ~2 km/hr (from previous trips I did). Just swimming will take 12.6/2 = 6 hr, 20 min. Add 2 hr for rest, lunch, exploration and troubleshooting, and the total time is 8 hr 20 min. I think it is a hard but viable option. If we end up doing it we can camp at Tsuquam Point Campgsite.
The next day we will cover the 7 km of West Coast trail in about 1:40 – 2 hrs. We will spend about an hour trying to find a trail up to Tsusiat and then spend another 20 min bushwacking. I have recently discovered that the trail might be not that bad to walk. High school kids have done the Nitinat triangle last June and were able to carry the canoes to Tsusiat, then to Hobiton and further to Nitinat.

We will try to cross the entire lake in one day (6.3 km) that must take us a bit over 3 hrs. We can hang the hammocks at Tsusiat or Hobiton, depending on the time we have left for crossing the portage to Hobiton. In addition with 2 hours for breaks and exploration that total for the second day is 8:20 hr and only 6.3 km swimming. 
The next day we will cross Hobiton (7.4 km) in 3:30 hrs, cross the portage to Tsusiat (30 min) and swim the rest of Nitinat Lake to reach our starting point. (3.2 km) in 1:40 hr. Assuming we will leave the Tsusiat to Hobiton crossing to the third day (1 hr), the total time for the day is 8:40 hrs, including 2 hours of rest and exploration. Swimming distance in the last day is 10.6 km.
Summary of swimming distances:
Day 1: 12.6 km
Day 2: 6.3 km
Day 3: 10.6 km
The bike back.
Remember that after all this we still have 130 km to go the next day.

Summary:
The trip will take minimum 5 days. We can potentially take longer to wait for appropriate weather in Nitinat and might also take an extra day swimming.

Gear list (this is not a full list):
Here I include things that are the most expensive pieces of gear needed on this trip and you will need to have them or buy or borrow.
-        Mountain Bike (if you join me for the bike part)
o   Minimum wheel width: 2 inch
-        Bike touring setup
o   Either bike rack with paniers or a bikepacking setup.
-        Neoprene wetsuit
o   I will likely be swimming in 3/4 mm thick.
-        Hammock with a mosquito net + tarp

Cost:
If you won’t be buying any gear for this trip then the most expensive thing will be the park permit. It will cost 127.50/person for accessing West coast trail (even those 7 km) + Parks Canada Natianal park entrance 7.80/person/day.

We will be taking minimal weight with us, so we might choose to rely on freeze-dried food. It is quite a bit more expensive then normal food.

Risk assessment and management plan for Nitinat Triangle swimpacking trip:
Open water swimming is associated with danger coming from various factors. Here I will list those factors and assess their relevance for this particular trip.
·        Hypothermia: Water temperature expected in lakes in Nitinat triangle are around 14-16 C – potentially able to cause hypothermia with a risk of death if left unmanaged. Medium risk. The risk can be largely mitigated by adhering to the following recommendations:
o    Wearing wetsuit of appropriate thickness (must be decided by every participant individually). For me, I will be fine with a ¾ mm wetsuit and a silicone cap.
o   Frequent assessment of mental condition of swimming partners: If you swim with a partner, even if you don’t suspect the onset of hypothermia, but you are in the risk zone temperature, ask them a few simple questions to assess their mental capacity like “what’s 55+12?” or “what town did we leave our bicycles?” If you or your partner take too long to answer or the speech is slurred or they look confused, it is a sign that you must return to the shore and proceed to reheating routine.
o   Have reheating tools handy: Always be close to the shore (within 3 min of swimming ~ 200 m) to be able to get to the shore fast and start reheating routine in case you suspect you or your partner is entering hypothermic state.

After you arrived at the shore check if you can do work with your fingers. If you are hypothermic, chances are, you will not be able to proceed to the following steps, so first, restore the activity of your fingers. Do swinging movements with your hands to push the blood from your core to the periphery. Do ten swings, stop and do 5 squeezes with your fists. Repeat until you get back the dexterity in your hands.

Next, install the rain tarp in case it rains (be sure you can do it quickly even when hypothermic. Practice a few times beforehand). Choose a spot where you can later hang a hammock. Make sure you are out of tidal zone.

Next, prepare the towel and clothes you will be taking on. Take off the top part of your wetsuit, dry your body with towel and take on dry warm clothes including a rain jacket on top of your down jacket in case it rains. Proceed with the bottom part of the wetsuit.

After you have dressed, hang the hammock (ensure that hanging system doesn’t require knot tying), take out the sleeping bag and get into it. Everything has to be done with maximum speed to avoid loss of heat as heat loss on the land may be even greater then in the water due to wind chill/evaporation effect. Active movement will also provide increased heat production. Avoid preparing hot drinks before you got into the sleeping bag. Once you are back to comfortable core temperature, consider eating and drinking hot beverages.
o   If you got hypothermic before getting to your daily destination or hypothermia is severe, you should consider bailing on the mission. Concentrate your further steps to getting back to Nitinat Lake or Pacific Rim Trail where you can be rescued.
o   Keep hydrated and sated before you get hypothermic (once you are hypothermic it is not the primary concern)
o   If you get cold in water, consider moving faster to produce more energy. If you are getting tired and unable to move faster, and getting cold, you should immediately get out of water and proceed to hypothermia management (3)
o   Likelihood of death: low (if adhering to prevention and management instructions)

·        Fog hazard: Swimmers often get lost in the fog. In absence of visual cues in the open water the likelihood of dying is high. In our case it is not that dangerous as we will constantly be surrounded by land and even if we loose visual cues, we are likely to run into land eventually. Chances to fail the mission is high as much time can be spent in vein trying to find the right direction. Low risk
o   Management: (1) Use compass on your wrist to orient yourself relatively to the closest shore. Remember the azimuth of where the closest land is located relative to you. Every member of the group must have a compass on them accessible during the swim in case of separation. Also, every member must have a full survival kit for the case of separation.
o   (2) It would be handy to have access to the GPS and maps on the water, but not required for survival.

·        Tidal currents: This swim involves a dangerous and potentially lethal swim through Nitinat Narrows. This obstacle is likely to be a key to the expedition and will involve future tactical preparation. Nitinat Narrows have claimed lives of paddles in the past! The lake is located 2 m above the sea level, meaning that water in the narrows moves constantly, either due to tidal activity or the river current. The current caused by water inflow from Nitinat River is always downstream and is calm. Tidal current can be downstream or upstream depending on the phase and are much faster then river current. The downstream tidal current can be fast and less uniform, but still not very dangerous. The upstream current during the flooding tide forms dangerous conditions in the narrows: the tidal bore wave, the swirls and undercurrents all cause serious hazard to the swimmers and must be avoided at all costs. The swim should be performed during the slack water (still water).

There are 2 points in the tidal cycle when the water is the most stationary: during the transition from ebb tide to flooding tide (low water) and during the transition between flooding and ebb tide (high water). The low slack water is dangerous because the transition between the direction of current is associated with bore – a big wave coming from the see deep into the lake. The safest time to approach the North boat docking site is during high slack - end of flooding tide and start of ebb tide.
Miscalculation and poor judgement is likely to kill us! Manageable. Low chance, high risk.
o   High-water slack at Nitinat Bar is 2 hours and 15 minutes after high water at Tofino
o   Info about crossing Nitinat Bar on boat: https://mvdirona.com/TravelArticles/Nitinat.htm

·        Boat hazard: There is one boat on Nitinat Lake that goes back and forth between Nitinat town and Nitinat Narrows. It takes tourists from Nitinat town to the West Coast Trail every 2-3 hours. Not controllable in some cases. Low chance, high risk
o   We should ask safety team in Nitinat let the crew of that boat know about our presence in the lake for certain dates.
o   Wear bright caps.
o   The drybags should be made out of bright materials.

·        Wild life. We are going to be exposed to marine life in Nitinat Lake (it is salty) and forest wild life. Dangerous animals that we can encounter on this trip include Lion’s Mane Jelly (very likely), sea urchins (likely), cougars (rare, but possible, low risk of attack), black bears (low risk of attack). Not manageable in some instances. Low chance, high risk.
o   Lion’s Mane encounter is very likely. The contact with its tentacles causes temporary pain. Stings are not deadly. Medical care is required in case of large exposure; not likely in our case if we will be swimming in wetsuits. Stings can be treated with vinegar. It should be available in the external pocket of the bag.
o   Sea urchins. May be poisonous. Avoid walking in tidal zone. Transition to swimming as soon as possible. Use caution.
o   Vancouver Island has the highest density of cougars in the world. If attacked, bear spray will not help because they attack from behind and you will not have time to reach for it. The encounters are not confrontational (protection of territory, cubs as with bears) but predatory. Cougars sometimes hunt humans. If attacked by a cougar you must fight and scream. Once the primary attack is fought off, drive away the cougar by showing teeth, enlarging your size by raising your hands up (preferably with a bag) and shouting. Behave aggressively. Do not lay down or bend down.
o   Bears. Vancouver Island has only black bear population. If encountered, drive it away by shouting, and waving hands. If it charges, do not step back, show dominance but do not attack yourself. Use your bag raised above your head to seem taller. If attacked, fight back. Use rocks, sticks, your teeth. Direct your blows to face, specifically eyes and nose. Bears usually retreat if you mean business.
§  Bear spray is effective, but I don’t think it is necessary. We will be spending most of the time in the water, so we will not be exposed to bears too much. Also bear sprays are heavy and large. The chances that we will need a bear spray is low because bears run away once they see you. I think it is not worth it.

·        Salty water: Nitinat Lake is as salty as the ocean. Manageable. Low risk
o   Always carry 1-2 liters of water in the external pocket of bag to prevent dehydration from salty water. Finding creeks is time consuming, so fill out all the bottles (2 L) every time you stop at the shore.
o   Chafing is much worse in salty water. I expect to use a bucket of Vaseline or lanoline if I am able to get it (more environmentally friendly)

·        Infectious disease: A population of beavers is known to live between lakes Hobiton and Tsusiat. Beavers are known reservoirs of Giardia. Infection can lead to diarrhea abdominal cramps, bloating, weakness and dehydration. Water filter or UV light is required for the trip. Water tablets are useless against Giardia. Manageable. Low risk.

·        Mosquitoes: Not a huge health risk in BC but can seriously affect the success of expedition. Last time at Nitinat we have lost hours of sleep to these bastards. Hammocks with mosquito nets are necessary for this trip. Low risk

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